Demand – this has been healthy especially from China as higher domestic milk prices there has likely led to greater milk imports from New Zealand. The number of unsatisfied buyers at recent auctions has been elevated and forward price curves for major products are relatively flat suggesting fundamental strength rather than a near term short squeeze.
Supply – NZ supply as milk production dipped below usual levels in November and with drier weather in North Island extra supply for this time of year will be unlikely.
Fonterra lifted its 2020/21 milk price forecast to a range of $6.90 to $7.50 (up from $6.70 to $7.30 previously) – see graph below.
This being said Fonterra has to be cautious with:
NZ weather conditions – drought can increase the price of feed and deplete water stores for cows and can reduce the ability of dairy farmers to grow feed and ultimately reduce their herd.
challenges from further escalation of COVID – global demand could soften as a result of extended shutdowns, or large falls in discretionary spending.
increasing milk production in the Northern Hemisphere – In Europe and the US, previous dairy stockpiles are now reaching commercial markets which will depress prices.
Strong NZ$ – milk is sold on the GlobalDairyTrade (see below) in US$. If the NZ$ gets stronger it will take more US$ to convert into NZ$ so higher domestic milk prices.
How does the GDT work?
GlobalDairyTrade trading events are conducted as ascending-price clock auctions run over several bidding rounds. In each auction a specified maximum quantity of each product is offered for sale at a pre-announced starting price. Bidders bid the quantity of each product that they wish to purchase at the announced price. If the price of a product increases between rounds, to ensure their desired quantity a bidder must bid their desired quantity at the new, higher price. Generally, as the price of a product increases, the quantity of bids received for that product decreases. The trading event runs over several rounds with the prices increasing round to round until the quantity of bids received for each product on offer matches the quantity on offer for the product (as shown in the diagram below). Each trading event typically lasts approximately 2 hours.
Many thanks to past student Shelalé Mazari for an article in The Express Tribune on the Sunday Bazaar – one of the largest thrift markets in Karachi. Essentially a flea market there is a section know as Lunda which is home to some of the most convincing new, used and defected designer items from across the world – Louis Vuitton, Prada, Coach, Gucci, Michael Kors etc. There are four main sections: new and used bags, new and used shoes, cheat perfumes and cosmetics, and hair appliances. To give you an idea of prices: LV bag is between $1,200 – $4,000 normally but in the market it sold for Rs1,200($20).
The bags are from China but they appear authentic: some inner pockets even carry the brand envelopes and cards found in originals. Stall holders said that they get these bags from containers that come into port from America, China, and France. Some private dealers do the initial sorting and take the best of the lot before others are allowed to even look at it.
Tyler Cowen, author and of the blog Marginal Revolution, recently suggested that the world economy needs the transformation that was apparent in the postwar boom – the industrialisations of inventions. He refers to it as:
The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better.
He suggests that productivity advances are occuring but are in the form of: 1. laying off workers
2. moving their production to countries where the cost structure of producton is much more advantageous.
It is imperative that innovation is exploited as it is the driver of economic growth. According to Will Hutton in the Observer the technologies that once created a significant number of jobs are not now prevalent in society. The growth of some industrialised countries has been disguised by the credit boom starting with the Big Bang in 1986 – a huge number of jobs were created in the financial services sector.
The phrase Big Bang, used in reference to the sudden deregulation of financial markets. The day the London Stock Exchange’s rules changed, 27 October 1986, was dubbed “Big Bang Day” because of the increase in market activity.
However job growth in this area cannot be maintained and this is apparent with the amount of debt that a lot of countries are now carrying. The world has embraced the free market and the consensus has been that governments fail and markets succeed. Nevertheless future growth of the world economy will be determined by innovation and invention, something that is too important to be totally left in the hands of the market.
A hat tip to colleague David Parr for this super piece from ‘Madison’ magazine. In the 20th Century Amercian business was symbolised by the likes of Standard Oil, General Motors and IBM. But in the 21st Century it is Apple that has flown the “Stars & Stripes” in the business world by making imaginative and productive products for its clientele. These products have subsequently improved their own effectiveness in everything they do whether in business or leisure.
Apple is a classy product and as a Mac user I would tend to agree with John Roach (Madison magazine) that Apple has shown immense creativity and originality in its products. The driver behind the comapny as you know is Steve Jobs and I do recall an interview with John Sculley (former Apple GM) when Steve Jobs lured him from his role as GM of Pepsi. Typical Jobs rhetoric summed up Sculley’s lack of ambition at the time.
“Do you want to sell sugar-water for the rest of your life or do want to come with me and change the world?” Sculley gulped (not on his pepsi) with the ambiton and drive of Jobs and subsequently went on to work for Apple.
One would think that Apple is the best Amercian Capitalism has to offer. Unfortunately America cannot compete in the production possibilities of China but it is not productivity that will save the US economy but innovation and willingness to challenge the boundaries. Apple has these attributes. Click here to see the full article
This was a lecture given at the TED conference in 2004 by Steven Levitt of the University of Chicago (one of the authors of Freakanomics). He gives an inside look into the economics of a drug selling gang. If you have read Freakanomics you will recall the material that he discussed in the book. However Levitt is quite witty in his presentation and produces some very interesting statistics. Worth listening to.
In the back of the Berliner Republik bar on the banks of the river Spree, Matt, Otto and Christian’s eyes are fixed on a screen in front of them. The names and prices of 18 German draught beers flash up, bright green on a black background, and change every few seconds, according to who has ordered what.
It’s a pub game for the modern age, based on supply and demand. The trick is to buy the beer cheaply and then give yourself a pat on the back when demand pushes the price up.
“It gives a bit of a risqué edge to ordering,” says Otto, a graphic designer. “But it also makes you feel strangely vulnerable.”
Click here to read the rest of the article from the Guardian Newspaper