This is an interesting video clip from the RT Network featuring Max Keiser. Everyone knows Greece is insolvent but no-one has ever stated it officially. Some have suggested that the issue is a liquidity shortfall and lending it more money will help Greece meet its current debt service obligations and fund structural reforms that will lead to renewed growth and increased income, enabling to meet its obligations in the future. However Yanis Varoufakis, current Finance Minister of Greece, disagrese with this interpretation. He believes that Greece will never recover. The bailout programme locks it into a debt deflationary spiral which simultaneously reduces its income and increases its debt burden. Continuing to accept more loans in order to meet debt service obligations only makes matters worse.
Very good video from Ray Dalio in which he believes that the three main forces that drive most economic activity are:
1) trend line productivity growth,
2) the long-term debt cycle and
3) the short-term debt cycle.
What follows is an explanation of all three of these forces and how, by overlaying the archetypical short-term debt cycle on top of the archetypical long-term debt cycle and overlaying them both on top of the productivity trend line, one can derive a good template for tracking most economic/market movements. While these three forces apply to all countries’ economies, in this study we will look at the U.S. economy over the last 100 years or so as an example to convey the Template.
Another video by Paul Solman in which he discusses how the NYSE record high doesn’t reflect the fundamentals of the US economy. With interest rates at virtually 0% the US Federal Reserve is trying to lower unemployment by stimulating the economy. But, by doing so there has been a tendency for it to overstimulating the stock market in the process. And also lending to stock investors, whose margin debt to buy shares on credit has been hitting record highs. Last week the Dow ended above 16000, another record for the headline index of 30 major companies.
The last record was set in 2007, a few months before the Dow’s previous high watermark.But for all the talk of the Fed’s role there’s an alternative way to understand a record Dow and higher profits: a shift of power from workers to owners. The stock market would actually be much higher if the unemployment was much lower. I think the economy is still really fundamentally weak, and that slack that’s in the economy right now, with all the unemployed people, all the unemployed businesses, would actually bring up the stock market even further.
Lately there has been a lot of media coverage about an Excel error by academics Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart – co-authors of ‘This Time is Different’ – 2009. A student from University of Massachusetts tried to replicate one their models regarding growth rates when a country has a public debt of greater than 90% of GDP. Rogoff and Carmen stated that with this level of public debt growth in a country falls to a mean of -0.1%. However using the same data the student found that a figure of 2.2% was applicable in this context.
However Rogoff and Reinhart have been cautious about saying that high debt causes slower growth rates but it does highlight the validity of analysis connecting debt and austerity to growth rates. Adam Posen in the FT stated that the claim of a clear tipping point for the ratio of Government Debt to GDP past which an economy starts to collapse doesn’t hold. Following the second world war the US, UK, Belgium, Italy and Japan had public debt greater than 90% of GDP but there was not much of an effect on their economies. In Italy and of late in Japan stagnation in economies led to slowly rising debt levels. In the UK and US in the 1950’s growth returned and debt levels declined. What this is suggesting is
Slow growth is at least as much the cause of high debt as high debt causes growth to slow.
But a certain amount public debt is necessary for future development of any economy especially when you think about the construction of infrastructure and government spending on education. Both of which contribute to future growth and in theoretical terms move the production possibility curve outwards. This in turn creates growth and subsequently income for a government.
USA – Mad Spending v EU – Nervous Austerity
With one side of the Atlantic – USA – involved in quantitive easing (printing money) and the other – EU – with severe austerity, maybe somewhere in between would be a logical way to go about things. But is moderation a choice for policy makers when they have already gone so far down the track of their respective plans?
What can be concluded is that too much debt has costs for growth but the degree of those costs is dependent on the reasons for debt accumulated and what path the economy is actually taking.
Another satirical clip from Clarke and Dawe of ABC in Australia, this time on the crisis in Cyprus. I like the idea of the spin cycle with this new model and the impact the crisis is having on Russian investment. Well worth a look
If you look at the labour market in Spain you would think that it resembles the German economy 10 years ago when Gerhard Schroder was its leader. Schroder was responsible for labour reforms that ignited the German economy into one of the strongest in Europe.
Spain is relaxing labour laws and cutting public spending and there are some positive signs here in that labour unit costs are falling as result of greater productivity. However German’s vocational education sector was a significant factor in its improved performance as the education and training system is more job orientated. Furthermore, with austerity measures in place and more to follow – pressure from the EU to introduce yet another sales-tax rise – Spain will find it hard to generate any sort of growth. But if it does grow will it generate any reduction in unemployment? Because of labour reforms some economists now believe that only 1.5% growth is required to bring about net job creation rather than 2.5% as previous.
The 10bn-euro (US$13bn) bailout of Cyprus’ economy, agreed by the EU and IMF, demands that all bank customers pay a one-off levy and has led to heavy cash withdrawals.
Under the currently agreed terms, depositors with:
* Less than 100,000 euros in Cyprus accounts would have to pay a one-time tax of 6.75%.
* More than 100,000 euros would pay 9.9%.
The BBC says the president may want to lower the former rate to 3%, while raising the levy on the larger depositors to 12.5%. Some EU source told Agence France-Presse there could be a three-way split on the level of levy, grouped into accounts holding less than 100,000 euros, between 100,000 and 500,000 and more than 500,000. The clip below is from Al Jazeera – it shows at one bank in the Limassol district, a frustrated man parked his bulldozer outside and threatened to break in.
Recently reported by the Associated Press is the fact that the GFC has led to a reduction in funding for health care and drug treatment programs in Greece. Interesting statistics are:
2008 – 2010 – approx 10-14 new cases of HIV infections per year among drug users.
2011 – 206 new cases
2012 Jan – Oct – 487 new cases
With the current state of the Greek economy there are more people who are vulnerable and use drugs. Some turn to cheaper drugs and inject them instead of smoking in order to get the same high from a smaller quantity. One of the main methods of controlling the spread of the virus is by the distribution of free, clean needles but the demand for more needles has increased from 50 per addict to approximately 200. However the spending cuts by the Greek government has meant that there is a shortage of basic materials.
With the US debt currently standing at 16 billion dollars and the prospect of a fiscal cliff – slashed spending and higher taxes – is it sustainable to keep on borrowing money? Historically Americans have preferred debt to taxes – you could say that it all started with the Boston Tea Party where they disposed of tea in the harbour because of the tax policy of the British government and the East India Company that controlled all the tea imported into the colonies. The video clip below from PBS News has MIT economist Simon Johnson talking about his recent book “White House Burning” which discusses the history of US debt – 225 years of it. He states that if we want to keep Social Security and Medicare we need to think how you are going to pay for it. The answer is NOT selling more debt to the Chinese but to pay the taxes to support social insurance programmes. He also mentions that if you go over the fiscal cliff in a disorganised way, with significant political confrontation, it will be a disaster. Quite simply the US government needs to acquire more tax revenue and bring its spending under control.
Another really good video from Paul Solman of PBS, this time he talks with Wall Street Journal journalist David Wessel about America’s debt. Some noteworthy facts include:
* 63 percent the government spent went out the door without a vote of Congress
* 20 percent of the federal budget is spent on defense – $700 billion last year, more than the combined defense budgets of the next 17 largest defense budgets of other countries
* Each aircraft carrier is $11 billion. This is enough to replace 750,000 shoulder, knee, and hip joints for people on Medicare.
* In 2011 the government took in $1.3 trillion in tax revenue, but the Treasury adds up the value of all the loopholes, deductions and credits, and they amounted to $1.1 trillion.