ASB bank published some of its forecasting for the Global and New Zealand economies and number of potential routes – read the full article here. They have come up with a central scenario which focuses on what is actually happening at the moment although we know how things can change. They then do an upside and a downside around this central forecast. They also published some graphs that relate to their scenarios – see below.
The ASB also noted that compared to other countries New Zealand is currently in a good position:
- The economy is going into a deep but short-lived contraction – the economy will recover.
- NZ has more fiscal and monetary ammunition than other countries.
Where the economy actual ends up – how long is a piece of string? Stay safe.