Here are some charts and commentary from the BNZ which are particularly useful for New Zealand Trade and the potential growth of the agricultural sector.
NZ’s most significant exports to China are dairy products (39% of total), forestry (24%), tourism (12%), and meat (10%). With the possible exception of forestry, all of these sectors stand to benefit from ongoing urbanisation in China, the continued rise of the middle class, and rising household income and consumption levels. Not only is Chinese demand expected to strengthen further, but domestic production in many cases will fall well short of consumption. Exports from NZ will have a big opportunity in helping make up the shortfall.
Chinese protein demand soaring
There is a strong and well proven link between rising incomes and changes in diet (see chart below). The gradual westernisation of the Chinese diet has seen per- capita consumption of protein soar over the past decade or so. In contrast, per capita consumption of traditional foods such as rice is in decline.
Urbanisation has further stepped up Chinese demand for protein. Compared with the less diversified diets of rural communities, city dwellers have a varied diet richer in animal proteins and fats, and characterised by higher consumption of meat, poultry, milk and other dairy products.
Data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics shows per capita consumption of dairy products (excluding butter) has climbed from 7kg/person in 1992 to 20kg/person in 2012. Meat consumption has risen from 13kg/person to 23kg/person over the same period.
Per capita protein consumption for urban households is roughly three times that of rural households.