Brian Fallow of the New Zealand Herald wrote a very informative article on the inflationary target that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps missing – the CPI has been below the bottom of the bank’s 1 to 3% target band. Some will say that the RBNZ has been too tight with its monetary policy stance – maintaining high interest rates for too long. Assistant Governor John McDermott has defended the bank’s position for the following reasons:
- Nearly half the CPI consists of tradables where the price of goods is impacted by competition from outside New Zealand. For the last four years the global economy has been in a disinflationary environment caused by excess supply and in particular low commodity prices especially oil. Year ending September 2016 Tradables = -2.1%. This offset almost all of the +2.1% rise in non-tradables prices. See graph below.
- The recovery form the GFC has been quite weak and with the NZ$ strengthening (imports cheaper) accompanied by lower world prices has meant that import prices have been very low.
- The growth of the supply-side of the economy has been particularly prevalent which again has led to less scarcity and lower prices.
- Recent years has seen immigration boost the demand side of the economy but because the age composition is between 15-29 rather than 30-40 in previous years, the former has a much less impact on demand as they don’t tend to have the accumulated cash for spending.
- The RBNZ reckon that the output gap is now in positive territory (actual growth being higher than potential growth) which will start to put pressure on prices as capacity constraints become more prominent.
- Statistically with a weak inflation rate in the December 2015 quarter the December 2016 quarter is most likely to be higher as the percentage change is taken on the CPI of the previous year.
The spectre of deflation hitting the New Zealand economy does not seem to be a concern at this stage especially with the longer-term inflationary expectations being in the mid range of the target bank i.e. 2%.