Category Archives: Externalities

Behavioural Economics and reclining airline seats

I picked up this topic from Michael Cameron’s blog Sex, Drugs, and Economics which looked in detail at the economics behind reclining airline seats. The issue that he refers to is – who owns the space between reclining airline seats?

Externalities

The person (Recliner) who reclines their seat reduces the amount of space that the person (Reclinee) behind has especially if they have their tray table down and becomes a negative externality to them. Some airlines are worse than others with regard to space – American carriers tend to have very little room as do the low cost airlines. However carriers that operate more long haul flights especially Emirates seem to be more generous with the space between seats. However if there is nobody in the seat behind then there is no externality. This refers to the Coase Theory (see previous blog post) in which Ronald Coase stated that problems are jointly produced by the person who creates the externality and the person who is affected by it. He argued that bargaining between parties could produce a mutually beneficial and efficient solution to problems like the scares resource i.e. the space between airline seats.

An article on the site Evonomics by Buccafusco (Cardozo School of Law) and Sprigman (NYU School of Law) looked at research into how much passengers would be willing to pay to recline their seat. They looked at the following scenarios.

Default – you have the right to recline your seat
Recliners wanted on average $41 to refrain from reclining, while reclinees were willing to pay only $18 on average. Only about 21 percent of the time would ownership of the 4 inches change hands

Default – you don’t have the right to recline your seat and have to negotiate
Recliners were only willing to pay about $12 to recline while reclinees were unwilling to sell their knee room for less than $39. Recliners would have ended up purchasing the right to recline only about 28 percent of the time—the same right that they valued so highly in the other condition.

The Coase theorem suggests that the initial allocation of rights should not matter, because if the person who values the right the most doesn’t start out with it, they will simply purchase it from the other. But what Buccafusco and Sprigman found suggests that this simple solution might not work. What they found was an endowment effect.

Loss Aversion and the  Endowment Effect

Loss aversion can be explained by prospect theory, which states that an individual’s value function (whether for money or otherwise) is concave for gains but convex for losses. In other words, people are more sensitive to losses compared to gains of similar magnitude. This is illustrated below.

Prospect theory

The reference point in the diagram is the current position of the individual concerned. Gains and losses are evaluated with reference to this neutral reference point. The value function takes an asymmetric S-shape because marginal value (or sensitivity) declines as absolute gains and losses increase in size. A dollar lost more than outweighs a dollar gained. In conventional economics, gains and losses are treated equally – a dollar lost simply cancels out a dollar gained. Golf provides a perfect example of a reference point: par. Every hole on a golf course has a number of strokes associated with it; the par provides the baseline for good – but not outstanding – performance. For a professional golfer, a birdie (one stroke under par) is a gain, and a bogey (one stroke over par) is a loss. Economists have compared two situations a player might face when hear the hole:

  • putt to avoid a bogey
  • putt to achieve a birdie

One group of economists analysed more than 2.5 million putts in exquisite detail to test that prediction and found that whether the putt was easy or hard, at every distance from the hole, the players were more successful when putting for par than for a birdie. The difference in their rate of success when going for par (to avoid a bogey) or for a birdie was 3.6%.

Note that endowment effects are working for the ‘reclinees’ as well – they are willing to give up their extra knee room for $39 if they had the right to keep it, but would only be willing to pay $18 to get that right if they didn’t start out with it.

The endowment effect means that this problem isn’t really amenable to a simple solution, because recliners already have the default rights, and are understandably unwilling to give those rights up. And any change in policy is going to incur passenger protest – because even though we may gain knee room, passengers would be giving up their right to recline, and loss aversion almost ensures that would be a painful and unwelcome trade-off for most passengers.

Repeated games may help climate change negotiations

Reading a post from Michael Cameron’s blog reminded me of how repeated games of the prisoner’s dilemma may help climate change negotiations.

The Paris Agreement came in to effect on 4th November this year and it brings all nations into a common cause to undertake take ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects, with enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so.

The main issue with tackling climate change is the cost to countries of implementing it. To be successful it will need profound transformation of energy and transport organisations, and changes in the behaviours of billions of consumers. Research has suggested that it will likely cost 1% of GDP – even though it doesn’t seem much, it is double the amount currently spent on development aid worldwide.

A successor treaty? 

According to Michael Liebreich, the prospects don’t look good when you consider the following:

  • The US sees a cap on carbon emissions as a threat to competitiveness, and hence to its global supremacy. Add to this the rhetoric of President elect Donald Trump which has dismissed global warming.
  • The developing world denounces any calls for a cap on emissions as an effort by former colonial powers to hold back development;
  • Europe has been making encouraging though patchy progress towards targets, driven mainly by a one-off switch from coal to gas.

The issue here is how countries can expect to make cuts in emissions when their economic competitors refuse. This in turn leads to The Tragedy of the Commons which occurs when a group’s individual incentive lead them to take actions which, overall, lead to negative consequences for all group members.

Climate Change as Prisoner’s Dilemma
The initial impression from the discussions over climate change is that of a typical Prisoner’s Dilemma. As mentioned previously, the cost of tackling climate change is approximately 1% of annual per capita GDP. However, if nothing is done about the issue the cost is estimated to be between 5% to 20% of GDP. So that defines what happens at the extreme of cooperative or non-cooperative behaviour.

Climate Change - Pris Dil

Form the table above, a country that refuses to act, whilst the other cooperates, will experience a free-rider benefit – enjoying the advantage of limited climate change without the cost. On the flip side, any country that imposes limits, when its competitors do not, incurs not just the cost of limiting its own emissions, but also a further cost in terms of reduced competitiveness – estimated here at an additional 3.0%.

From the table it seems predictable that countries should prefer to be self-interested: the best national policy, if others reduce emissions, is to defect; likewise, if other countries are not taking action, then it is pointless to be the only sucker to take action, and one should again defect.

Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma and Cooperation 

The dynamics of the prisoner’s dilemma do change if participants know that they will be playing the game more than once. In 1984 an American political scientist at the University of Michigan, Robert Axelrod, argued that if you play the game repeatedly you are likely to see emerging is cooperative rather than defective actions. He identified four elements to a successful strategy which is this case can be applied to climate negotiations:

1  Be Nice – sign up to unilateral cuts in emissions, as deep as your economy and financing capacity allows.

2  Be Retaliatory – single out countries that have not commenced action and, in collaboration, find ways of pressurising them until they do so.

3  Be Forgiving – when non-compliant countries come onboard give them generous applause; signal that good behaviour
will be rewarded with even deeper cuts in your own emissions.

4 Be Clear – let everyone know in advance exactly how you are going to behave – that you will work with them if they take action on emissions, and that you will retaliate if they do not.

It is the belief of Michael Liebreich that this research by Axelrod should be put into practice by the world’s climate negotiators. As treaties on climate change are on-going and therefore become part of the game.

Final thought 

Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma provides valuable insight into how countries should act away from the negotiating table and over the longer term. This analysis also highlights the fact that the negotiations themselves are not the game. Diplomats and politicians don’t reduce emissions, engineers and consumers do. However, there are errors in the resemblance as governments can form alliances, which makes the dynamics of the game a great deal more complex. Furthermore, they can act inconsistently and irrationally, and their willingness to act is most probably associated with the harshness of global warming. Ultimately, for the planet’s sake, one hopes that everyone will play the game.

Sources: 

  • The Economist – Economics Focus: Playing with the planet. 29th September 2007 
  • New Energy Finance – How to Save the Planet – Michael Liebreich– 11th September 2007 

Weaning countries off coal won’t be easy.

Coal UsageGermany, the greenest of green countries, and probably the world’s most enthusiastic investor in renewable energy, is finding it very hard to breakaway from coal fired plants. The German government were all set to impose a levy on the coal industry but instead gave a subsidy of 1.6 billion euros to mothball eight coal-fired plants and shut them down permanently by 2023. The main cause of this change of policy was that there was significant pressure from labour unions and local governments in the coal industry. The resistance in the greenest of green countries is indicative of workers and retirees, local economies and communities still depend on coal.

So from Germany to India, strategies to increase the share of renewable energy in the power mix have relied on a coal base. Although governments worldwide are focused on cleaning up energy sources that cause significant emissions, there needs to be some regard for displaced workers from traditional energy sources like the coal industry. Coal miners skills will hardly be transferable to other occupations – structural unemployment.

Nevertheless, coal remains one of the easiest and cheapest form of energy and this is very apparent in India where usage is about 62% of energy needs. India is the second largest consumer after China and ahead of the USA. Also coal consumption is growing about 7 percent a year to power the country’s economic catch-up. As China is going through a growth period similar to Europe many years earlier, their argument will be that European countries polluted the environment by a similar amount

Climate change activists have highlighted concerns of rising temperatures by 2100, however  are rising temperatures as significant when you consider the long-term implications of much higher unemployment?

Source: New York Times – 30th August 2016

Three Gorges Dam – Positive and Negative Externalities

Below is a very good documentary on the construction of the largest dam in the world – the Three Gorges Dam in China. However in its construction there are both costs and benefits including private and external. This is a topic in Unit 3 of the CIE A2 Economics syllabus and is found under – Externalities. Remember that we have both positive and negative externalities of production and consumption.

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PRIVATE AND SOCIAL COSTS

 Externalities create a divergence between the private and social costs of production.

SOCIAL COST = PRIVATE COST + EXTERNAL COST (externality)
  • Private costs are the costs to a ‘firm of producing a good or service and to an individual of consuming a product.
  • External costs are the spill over effects on third parties.
  • Social costs are obtained by adding the private and external costs together. They reflect the total cost to society of an economic decision.

The same concept applies for Private and Social Benefits:

SOCIAL BENEFIT = PRIVATE BENEFIT + EXTERNAL BENEFIT (externality)

Benefits and Costs of building the Three Gorges Dam

Three Gorges dam - Externalities

The biggest benefit that is seen from the dam’s construction is that it produces renewable energy from hydro electricity. The Three Gorges Dam alone can provide China with 10% of its annual energy consumption. Increasing the proportion of hydroelectricity alternative to coal burning plants, will cut their emissions greatly which will help reduce the overall emissions all over the world – carbon emissions will be reduced 100 million tonnes compared to alternative coal generation

A Level Revision: Comparing living standards over time and between countries

National income figures, usually GDP at factor cost, are the man figures used to compare living standards. This is because most countries keep and publish detailed national income data.

However, care has to be taken in using national income figures to compare living standards both over time and between countries. It is important to use GDP at constant prices (i.e. real national income) so that a misleading impression is not given because of the effects of inflation. It is also important to take into account differences in population size. A country with a large population is likely to produce more than a country with a small population. However, this output has to be shared out among more people so living standards are not necessarily higher. This is why economist divide output by population and compare real GDP per capita. Even when adjustments have been made for inflation and differences in population size, national income figures as a measure of living standards have to be interpreted cautiously.

A rise in real GDP per capital may have resulted from an increase in the output of capital goods. In the longer run this will increase productive capacity and result in more consumer goods being produced. However, in the short run people may not feel any benefit from more capital goods being made. An increase in weapons will also increase GDP but, again, may not necessarily improve living standards. If more police are employed and crime is reduced, the quality of people’s lives will be improved. However, if more police are employed to keep pace with rising crime, people will be feeling worse off. So economists have to look not only at the amount of goods and services produced but also at the composition of those goods and why the quantity has changed. In addition, the quality of goods and services produced should be examined. The same quantity could be produced this year as last year or five years ago but if the quality of the output has risen, living standards will have improved.

The distribution of income also has to be taken into account. National income may rise but if it is concentrated in the hands of a few, the living standards of the majority may not rise. See graph below from The Economist showing the Gini coefficient of income inequality.

Gini Coef Nordic

National income figures also fail to take into account some items which affect the quality of people’s lives. A certain amount of economic activity is not declared, either to avoid paying taxes or because it is illegal. If there is an increase in, say, people providing home hairdressing services but not declaring them, people’s living standards may rise, although this increase will not be reflected in the official figures.

Differences in working hours and working conditions are also not taken into account. If output remains constant but working hours fall, people are likely to have a higher quality of life.

National income figures only take into account economic activities for which a payment is made. They do not take into account externalities and non-marketed activities. So, for example, an increase in pollution will reduce living standards while an increase in people decorating the homes of old people, on a voluntary basis, will improve the quality of life of the elderly. Neither of these will be recorded in national income figures.

All of these factors have to be taken into account in using national income figures to make comparisons both over time and between countries. However, some additional factors have to be considered when making international comparisons. Different statistical methods are employed in some countries and the degree of accuracy can vary. Tastes and needs can be different in different countries. For example, people living in a cold climate have to spend more on heating than those in warm countries, merely to enjoy the same standard of living. There is also the problem of selecting a rate of exchange to make the comparison. Exchange rate fluctuate and do not always reflect relative prices in compared using purchasing power parities which compare the cost of a given basket of goods in different countries.

Economics of the Sugar Tax

Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver was delighted with the ‘sugar tax’ that was announced as part of the 2016 Budget in the UK. The tax, which will come in from 2018, could add 8p (17c) to the price of cans of fizzy drinks like Coca-Cola, 7Up and Irn Bru, energy drinks like Red Bull and carton juice drinks like Ribena from 2018. Below is a clip from BBC Newsnight explaining the rationale behind the tax.

 

In economics sugary drinks have a negative externality, (cost to third party) and the tax will make consumers pay some of the external cost.

This higher tax reduces the quantity demanded, raises revenue for government and achieve a more socially efficient level of consumption. The money raised will go towards sport in primary schools. The sugar tax should help to reduce major health issues, such as:

  • obesity and related illnesses
  • diabetes –  in particular type 2 diabetes
  • tooth decay

These external costs are reflected in higher costs imposed on the UK National Health Service (NHS). Poor health also adversely affects work and productivity. Therefore, the social cost of sugar consumption is greater than the private cost of sugar. Remember:

Social Cost = Private Cost + External Cost

This diagram shows the impact of a good with external costs. The free market Quantity is Q1, Price P1. But, the socially efficient level of output is at Q2 (where MPB marginal private  benefit (assuming no externalities of consumption)  = MSC marginal social cost) The solution is to impose a tax which raises the price and reduce the quantity to Q2. Source: Tutor2u

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Coca-Cola use behavioral economics to increase sales

Coke Can 250mlYou may have seen on the shelves beside the standard 375ml Coca-Cola can the 250ml slimline can that Coca-Cola introduced over a year ago. Coca-Cola Amatil has used a clever trick to increase its fizzy drink sales over the past year – it’s putting its products in smaller cans.

There are two reasons for this:

1. We are paying more for less. In some shops the small cans sell for NZ$2.16 each, or NZ$6.50 a litre.

2. When we eat or drink smaller portions, we feel as if we’ve done something virtuous, according to David Just, a professor of behavioural economics at Cornell University who studies consumer food choices.

“If they are left wanting, they may be much more likely to move to a second can, which could be a bad thing for the consumer, but a good thing for Coke.

“If they feel they have done something virtuous, they might feel they have licence to consume more elsewhere, and most often overcompensate.”

Coke are already launch new products that tap into consumers’ desire for low- or no-sugar beverages. For example Coke Life, which the company packages in a green label instead of the usual bright red. To make it sweet Coca-Cola uses a mix of cane sugar and stevia which is up to 150 time sweeter than sugar. Coke Life has about two-thirds of the sugar and kilojoules of regular Coke, and the company hopes it and similar products will lure health-conscious consumers back to fizzy drinks.

But isn’t this familiar to what the tobacco companies did after the link between smoking and cancer was established? They tried to get the consumer to smoke ‘Light’ cigarettes as opposed to not smoking at all. Don’t we have enough sugar in our diet anyway?

Obesity and the growth model

ObesityObesity it turns out is actually good for the economy. More consumption of food, particularly processed food, contributes to more economic growth. Poor health, strangely enough, can be considered an economic bonus. Bad food, too much food and drink, might be tragic in health terms but when it comes to the economy it would seem that obesity pays. But obesity doesn’t pay when it comes to the natural capital of the planet. Some economists have seen this obesity issue as indicative of wider economic, environmental and social problems. They take the economic argument one step further and link obesity to greenhouse gas emissions. Unnecessary over consumption of food is putting pressure on the environment through farming and manufacturing processes and hence contributing to its degradation.

There is proof to support the belief that while economic development is for the most part undoubtedly associated with human health, this is not always the case. The measure of economic growth – GDP – the value of the output of goods and services, does not consider the negative contributions that it might make to an economy. Ten percent of the developed world is made up of drug alcohol and cigarette sales and dealing with all these, medically of course, adds to the GDP and it is ironic that some cigarette manufacturers also produce surgical equipment and therefore making and doubling the benefit for GDP from smoking.

However growth is related to people living longer and this has been apparent with the improvements in healthcare in developed countries over the last century. In the developing world there has been a change from a high presence of infectious diseases to that of persistent illnesses including heart disease, strokes etc and is reflected, in some cases, in a disability for life. According to Garry Egger and Boyd Swinborne obesity is not a disease but a signal. It’s the canary in the coalmine, which should alert us to bigger structural problems in society. There are a number of areas where humans have achieved a peak of success, a sweet spot, but now that very success is turning on us and threatening to unravel centuries of achievement.

On the one hand, economic growth has over centuries led to a steadily improving standard of living, better levels of health and ever increasing life spans. In economic terms this reflects the start of a point of diminishing marginal rates of return from continued investment in the growth model.

Diminishing rates of return for the growth model

Mortality and economic growth data collected on the Swedish economy between 1800 to 2000 has shown the commencement of a diminishing rate of return on economic growth in relation to mortality rates. This coincides, not unexpectedly, with the leveling of improvements in health made from the decrease in infectious diseases associated with development, but with the consequent increase in chronic diseases associated with modern lifestyles, driven as they are by the modern environment. It is this switch, from predominantly infectious disease, to lifestyle-related chronic disease, and the consequent breakdown in the human immune system that differentiates the early from late stages of economic development. Several developing countries, such as China and India, appear to be experiencing this issue of chronic disease and at a more rapid pace because of their levels of GDP. In China for instance more than a quarter of the adult population are overweight or obese, as people add more meat and dairy products to their diet, causing chronic disease. According to a study in the Journal of Health Affairs “we need to find the right investments and regulations to encourage people to adopt a healthy lifestyle, or we risk facing higher rates of death, disease, and disability and the related costs.”

The reverse applies to Cuba where they experienced improved health conditions with the withdrawal of the Soviets in 1989. Over the next decade there was a significant improvement in health:

• Decrease in food intake of 1000 kcal/day average
• Mortality rate decrease by 20%
• Obesity reduced by approximately 50%
• Deaths from heart disease reduced by 35%
• Deaths from stroke reduced by 18%

Final thought
It seems to be apparent that the current economic growth system cannot keep going in perpetuity. As developed economies grow there comes a point where there is a diminishing marginal rate of return on investment in terms of climate change and in particular human health. As Keynes indicated at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 this current model of economics, ie. growth driven, will need to change in the next 100 years.

References:

Obesity, Chronic Disease, and Economic Growth: A Case for “Big Picture” Prevention by Garry Egger http://www.sage-hindawi.com/journals/apm/2011/149158/

Radio New Zealand – 30-1-11 Interview with Garry Egger

Taxes on fizzy drinks

With the increase in bulging waistlines and the rise in diabetes governments have been implementing taxes on surgary drinks to overcome this negative externality of consumption. The list of governments includes the following countries:

Hungary – in 2011 a tax on products with a high sugar content. The tax was calculated on the turnover of the company and the percentage of sugar per 100g of the product. Hungarian confectioners must pay the health tax on top of a 27% value added tax.

France – in 2012 a tax on all drinks with added sugar or artificial sweetener – US$0.08 per litre.

Mexico – in 2014 a tax on all sugary drinks of US$0.06 per litre. according to The Economist, in 2012 more than 70% of Mexican adults and 34% of 5-11 year olds were overweight and 12% of the population have diabetes which accounted for 14% of deaths in 2009.

Invariably the commercial sector believes that the government should not interfere with the market system and that consumers should be free to decide what to drink and eat. However the effect of a tax can be limited if the retailers absorb all the tax and therefore the price of the drink remains unchanged. Additionally a higher price because of the tax might not lead to any change in consumer behaviour as sugary drinks are very inelastic in nature to them.

Mexico

In some cases the tax has been passed onto the consumer and it has had the desired effect. Coca-Cola’s Mexican bottler, blamed declining sales in 2014 on the price jump that followed the introduction of the tax.  Overall sales of sugary drinks fell by 1.9% in 2014, having increased by an average of 3.2% a year over the three previous years. Some have said that reduced consumption has only saved Mexicans 5 calories a day on average and that the tax is regressive in that it takes more from the lower income groups than their higher income counterparts. Lower incomes were more responsive to the tax cutting their consumption of surgary drinks by 17% within a year of its introduction.

Different levels of tax.

As is the case with Hungary taxes that equate to levels of sugar or salt seem to be more effective with up to 40% of manufacturers adjusting their offending ingredients used. France and Mexico with their flat rate taxes for sugar content give the beverage industry little incentive to make it drinks healthier.

References: 

The Economist – Stopping slurping – November 28th 2015

confectionarynews.com 

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El Niño and Commodity Prices

Below is a very good video from The Economist outlining the effects of the El Niño weather pattern. It was first called El Niño – the boy (Jesus) – by Peruvian fisherman over a century ago because it became noticeable at Christmas time.

In parts of south east Asia, southern Africa and Australia it produces drier-than-average weather and even droughts. Research has shown that El nino tend to reduce global cocoa production by 2.4% which can lead to a price rise of almost 2%.

In South America heavy rain could threaten zinc, nickel and copper supply. Drought in South East Asia could lead to power shortages and higher prices in those countries that rely on hydropower.