Author Archives: Mark

The pros and cons of globalisation

The rhetoric around globalisation has been very much how beneficial it is to the global economy. Economists in general have been very much in favour of the interconnectedness of economies making goods and services more competitive to the consumer. So what are the pros and cons of globalisation?

The America’s Cup: multiplier effect and cost-benefit analysis

Source: RNZ

I was fortunate enough to be out in the spectator fleet for yesterday’s America’s Cup racing between Emirates Team New Zealand and Luna Rosa Prada Pirelli – honours were even in the two races. As with most events, analysts attempt to work out the multiplier effect and the impact it will have on an economy. In 2017 forecast, predicted that the America’s Cup would add between $600 million and $1 billion to the New Zealand economy. Employment would be boosted and in the longer term for every $1 put into infrastructure would generate $7.50 of economic activity. However with the impact of COVID-19, New Zealand will suffer a loss on the $249.5 million it invested in the America’s Cup, but there maybe benefits over time.

The Multiplier Explained

Consider a $300 million increase in business capital investment. This will set off a chain reaction of increases in expenditures. Firms who produce the capital goods that are ultimately purchased will experience an increase in their incomes. If they in turn, collectively spend about 3/5 of that additional income, then $180m will be added to the incomes of others. At this point, total income has grown by ($300m + (0.6 x $300m). The sum will continue to increase as the producers of the additional goods and services realise an increase in their incomes, of which they in turn spend 60% on even more goods and services. The increase in total income will then be ($300m + (0.6 x $300m) + (0.6 x $180m). The process can continue indefinitely. But each time, the additional rise in spending and income is a fraction of the previous addition to the circular flow.

The value of the multiplier can be found by the equation ­1 ÷ (1-MPC)
You can also use the following formula which represents a four sector economy

Source: CIE Revision Guide by Susan Grant

The economic impact is based a lot on the multiplier effect but the use of cost benefit analysis also considers those external costs and benefits which are not easily convertible into a monetary value.

Evaluation of CBA
It is clearly more efficient for public spending to be subject to rigorous analysis, rather than based on the whims of politicians. However, there are a number of criticisms of CBA, including:

1. It is often very costly to undertake, though usually this forms a very small proportion of total project spending.
2. Assessing the monetary value of external costs and benefits is often very difficult. What precisely is the value of the congestion that would be reduced if a new bi-pass were built around a busy town? How much extra tourist revenue will actually be gained from a new airport? How long will the building be used as a venue, as in the case of the Viaduct area in Auckland for the 2020/21 America’s Cup. One solution to this problem is shadow pricing, where analysts attempt to place a value on the costs and benefits of a decision or a project where an actual market price does not exist.
3. Changing circumstances can make initial projections appear grossly inaccurate. The Wembley Stadium project in London went considerably over-budget, and the majority Olympic Games are far more costly than originally estimated. For instance the Montreal Olympics in 1976 was eventually paid off in December 2006. Higher interest and inflation rates, and falling exchange rates can all dramatically affect costs.
4. Actual costs can also rise above planned costs as a result of moral hazard, where project managers go over budget because they expect that those who fund the project will make extra funds available, providing an insurance against their over-spending.
5. Ultimately, decisions to go ahead with projects are only guided by CBA, leaving politicians to make the final decision. Politicians are free, of course, to ignore the results of an appraisal.

If you have read the book Circus Maximus you will no doubt be aware that most big sporting events run over budget and in some cases don’t generate the benefits until well after the event if at all. So just because an event runs over budget is that enough to say that we shouldn’t go ahead with the event. There are a great many other benefits of hosting an event like the Americas Cup which are not measured by GDP. The sense of community and wellbeing that comes from New Zealander’s performance whether it be in rugby or at the Olympics. It tends to bring people together feel a sense of belonging which has external benefits.

New Zealand Household income not enough to be happy.

The recent Parliamentary Economic Review looked at the Household incomes and housing costs for the year ended 30 June 2020. Household income includes income from wages and salaries, self-employment, investments, government benefits, along with superannuation income. Some main points from the article:

  • Annual average household income was $107,731
  • Median annual household income was $88,327
  • Data only covers nine months to March 2020 – Stats NZ unable to collect data during the COVID-19 lockdown.
Stats NZ

Highest/lowest household incomes were:

  • Auckland region had the highest average annual income at $128,747
  • Wellington region $123,533.
  • Manawatū- Whanganui region $85,841.

Housing costs include spending on rents and mortgage repayments (both principal and interest repayments), along with spending on property rates, and building-related insurance. NZ households spent an average of $21 of every $100 on household costs which is similar to 2019. Of those in rental accommodation 26.5% spent more than 40% of their household income on rental payments and other housing costs.

What level of income makes us happy? New Zealand 5th

However a “happiness premium” established by researchers at Purdue University, in the United States suggested that an individual salary of $178,328 (US$128,844) will make New Zealanders happy but as shown above our average household income is $107,731. Money and finance website Expensivity has calculated the salary level in each country that would prevent unhappiness. Researchers looked at data from 1.7 million people and cross-referenced their earnings and life satisfaction. They found that more money boosted happiness – but only to a point. Beyond that, further increases in income could actually lead to more unhappiness. New Zealand ranks as the 5th highest income required to achieve happiness.

Consumption Function Cake

Went through the consumption function this morning with my A2 class and I recalled the superb cake that A2 student Lara Hodgson made for the class a few years ago – here’s hoping for a similar cake this term. Remember that the standard Keynesian consumption function is written as follows:

C = a + c (Yd) – where:

  •   C = total consumer spending
  •    a = is autonomous spending
  •    c (Yd) = the propensity to spend out of disposable income

Autonomous spending (a) is consumption which does not depend on the level of income. For example people can fund some of their spending by using their savings or by borrowing money from banks and other lenders. A change in autonomous spending would in fact cause a shift in the consumption function leading to a change in consumer demand at all levels of income. The key to understanding how a rise in disposable income affects household spending is to understand the concept of the marginal propensity to consume (mpc). The marginal propensity to consume is the change in consumer spending arising from a change in disposable income. The higher the mpc the steeper the gradient of the consumption function line. As you can imagine the consumption of cake was fairly rapid.

China and its journey to be a superpower

Useful video from DW which looks at China which over 40 Years ago opened up its economy to the rest of the world. Although Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to press ahead with economic reforms he made it clear that Beijing will not deviate from its one-party system or take orders from any other country. China has a system of market socialism in which the political system of communism exists in parallel with market capitalism and private ownership. The Irish Times Beijing correspondent Clifford Coonan makes some very good points.

Natural Rate of Unemployment explained.

Good video here from Marginal Revolution University. The natural rate of unemployment is a situation where there is no excess or deficiency of demand for labour. Known as the equilibrium rate of unemployment, it is caused primarily by frictions in the labour market. Types of unemployment which are likely to cause this rate to rise would include structural; technological; frictional and seasonal. The video covers types of unemployment which impact the natural rate of unemployment and also explain the difference between the actual rate and the natural rate.

Major contributions to inflation in New Zealand – NCEA Level 2 External

Finishing off the Inflation external standard with my NCEA Level 2 class and came across an ASB Bank publication which outlines what the main drivers of inflationary pressure are in New Zealand. They list 5 categories which are shown below and note that housing and commodity prices are quite prevalent. This would suggest that the government are trying to get the RBNZ to target house prices.

Source: ASB Bank Economic Note

It is forecast (ASB) that the CPI will rise to around 2.5% – cost-push and demand-pull factors with strong NZ$ being superseded by higher external costs and prices. The inflation target for the RBNZ is 1-3% with a target of 2% but the inflation figure above the midpoint should be treated the same as when inflation is below the midpoint. Therefore this does not mean that the RBNZ will necessarily raise interest rates.

Source: ASB Bank. Economic Note – 5th March 2021

Unemployment figures in New Zealand nearing pre-Covid levels.

Been covering unemployment with my Yr 13 class and showed them this graph today during our online class. As well as talking about recent changes it was useful to mention the boom period in the early 2000’s, the GFC in 2007 and how they impacted the level of unemployment. Also note the correlation between the labour cost index (changes in wages and salaries) and the unemployment rate. As labour becomes more scarce (lower levels unemployment) the LCI starts to rise and vice versa.

Source: Westpac Economic Overview. February 2021

The most recent figures publish show that the unemployment rate in New Zealand fell 0.4 percentage points to 4.9 percent in the December 2020 quarter which surprised a lot of commentators who predicted an increase. This time last year the unemployment rate was 4.1%. The number of those unemployed fell by 10,000 to 141,000 in the December quarter, while the number of those employed rose by 17,000 to 2,734,000 in seasonally adjusted terms. The proportion of the working-age population that were in the labour force also rose in the quarter. The labour force has seen sectors affected in different ways:

Negative – sectors in retail, hospitality and transport have seen major job losses.
Positive – with increased government spending there was employment growth in health, education and public services. Employment in the construction industry expanded by 8.2 percent between the December quarters, with Stats NZ reporting that more people were “working in areas such as plumbing and electrical services, roofing, and concreting”.

Differences in the economic fortunes of various sectors explain why there are reports of skill shortages at the same time as unemployment has risen. On the whole New Zealand is in a very lucky position relative to other parts of the world.

Introducing Unemployment with UB40

I recently started teaching the Unemployment topic to my Year 13 A2 class and remembered that one of the first albums I bought was UB40 Signing Off released in 1980 (see below).

The front cover and reverse has been made to look like the UB40 unemployment benefit attendance card from which the band took their name. Their UK top-ten hit “One In Ten” was an attack on Thatcherism and is mistakenly cited as referring to the number of unemployed in the UK at that time. It is in fact a song about government statistics in general, and how politicians use them to de-humanise problems. Useful way to introduce the subject especially if the class like reggae. I found it useful to have two windows open and play the video along side the lyrics. Click here for the lyrics of the song and here to see UB40 perform on Top of the Pops in 1981.  I was surprise at how many of the class knew of the band.